Publications



The Economic Journal, Volume 136, Issue 674, Pages 507–559, February 2026


Abstract: In recent decades, market power has been on the rise, although its increase varies between sectors. We argue that this heterogeneity can be partially attributed to sector-specific differences in turbulence dynamics. Turbulence, a measure of firms’ churn over the revenue productivity distribution, reflects firms’ ability to sustain their productivity over time. In a dynamic oligopolistic competition model, an increase in turbulence accelerates the turnover of leaders, and triggers reallocation of market shares towards high-markup firms. The predictions of our model are consistent with empirical evidence from both the U.S. and Europe.



European Economic Review, Volume 156, July 2023

Special Issue: the COVID-shock and the new macroeconomic landscape: taking stock and looking ahead

[This project is part of the Epidemic-Macro Model Data Base (Epi-MMB)]


Abstract: Asymmetric effects across sectors are the distinctive features of the Covid-19 shock. An Epidemiological-Industry Dynamic model with heterogeneous firms and endogenous firms dynamics mimics the deep recession suffered by sectors characterized by high exposure, the reallocation of entry and exit opportunities across sectors, and the dynamics of aggregate productivity during the first wave of the pandemic. The cleansing effect induced by the Covid19 crisis is sector-specific. Monetary policy and sticky wages are central ingredients to capture reallocation effects. Social distancing, by smoothing out cleansing in the social sector, slows down the reallocation process and prolongs the recession, but saves lives.



European Economic Review, Volume 142, February 2022


Abstract: We describe a new channel through which monetary policy affects productivity at business cycle frequencies. An unexpected monetary easing initially reduces average labor productivity, which then overshoots its pre-shock level. At the same time, the firm entry rate rises in response to the shock and then undershoots. Market concentration amplifies the effect on productivity and dampens that on entry. To rationalize these empirical findings, we build a New Keynesian model where the pool of heterogeneous producers is endogenous. By reducing borrowing costs, a monetary easing attracts low productivity firms to the market, inducing a reduction in average productivity. The resulting increase in competition cleanses the market of low productivity firms, leading to a productivity overshooting together with an undershooting of the entry rate. Market concentration affects the nature of new entrants, and alters the transmission of the shock.


Working Papers


[Presentations:  5th Sailing the Macro Workshop Ortygia, University of Naples Federico II, Erasmus University Rotterdam, 7th Annual CefES Conference, 4th XAmsterdam Macroeconomic Workshop (co-author), Theories and Methods in Macroeconomics 2025 (co-author)] - Submitted


Abstract: We study how revenue-neutral corporate tax reforms affect aggregate investment, productivity, and welfare in a heterogeneous firm model. Along the revenueneutral schedule of rates and deductions, we show that a high-rate, high-deduction regime generates more aggregate investment and higher welfare than a low-rate, low-deduction one. More generous deductions act as an investment subsidy that benefits small to medium-large firms, which invest intensively relative to their size, and thereby foster capital accumulation despite the higher tax rate. However, the same mechanism reallocates capital away from the largest and most productive firms, reducing aggregate productivity. An event study exploiting firm-level variation in exposure to a 2005–2007 Dutch reform supports our model’s key mechanism.


[Presentations:  Erasmus University Rotterdam, Society for Economic Dynamics 2024 (co-author), Leicester University (co-author), 11th Summer Workshop on Macro Finance (co-author)] - Submitted


Abstract: This paper investigates how rising overhead costs of production affect market outcomes across sectors with different degrees of input complementarity. Using Dutch administrative firm-level data from 2006–2018, we document sectoral heterogeneity in markups’ dynamics, which we attribute to variations in ICT investment. We estimate the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor, finding stronger complementarity in sectors that invest more in ICT. A two-sector model with heterogeneous firms and oligopolistic competition shows that higher overhead costs reduce the number of firms able to break even, leading to a contraction in output, lower wages and marginal costs. In sectors with stronger complementarity, lower wages translate into larger marginal cost reductions, boosting profits and markups while reducing the labor share. The model replicates key empirical patterns, including asymmetric markups’ growth—explaining 37% of the increase in ICT sectors and 43% in non-ICT.


Work in Progress


[Winner of the Modigliani Research Grant 2025]

[Press Coverage: Ateneapoli n.4 anno 41 (in Italian)]


[First draft soon! Slides available upon request]


Non-refereed and Policy Publications